D07
Tweet
SAVREMENI MODELI ZA PREDIKCIJU SAOBRAĆAJNIH NEZGODA – ANALIZA PRIMENLJIVOSTI NA PUTNOJ MREŽI SRBIJE
CONTEMPORARY MODELS OF PREDICTION THE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS – ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY TO THE ROAD NETWORK OF SERBIA
Sreten Jevremović, Vladan Tubić
Jevremović, S., Tubić, V., (2018). SAVREMENI MODELI ZA PREDIKCIJU SAOBRAĆAJNIH NEZGODA – ANALIZA PRIMENLJIVOSTI NA PUTNOJ MREŽI SRBIJE. 13 th International Conference - Road Safety in Local Communities, Kopaonik.
Rezime:
Više od 1,25 miliona ljudi godišnje pogine u saobraćajnim nezgodama. Glavni uzročnik stradanja mladih od 15 do 29 godina su upravo saobraćajne nezgode. 90% nastradalih je sa područja zemalja sa niskim i srednjim prihodima, kod kojih troškovi saobraćajnih nezgoda iznose oko 3% BDP-a. Celokupan negativan uticaj saobraćaja najčešće se kvantifikuje kroz broj saobraćajnih nezgoda i posledice koje one izazivaju. Suštinski problem je kako u planiranom periodu eksploatacije puteva za određene putne i saobraćajne uslove predvideti broj i težinu saobraćajnih nezgoda. Dugi niz godina razvijaju se i primenjuju modeli predikcije saobraćajnih nezgoda koji su u velikoj meri uticali na prevenciju nezgoda, a samim tim i na smanjenje svih negativnih posledica koje one izazivaju. Iako predstavljaju veoma važne i neophodne alate u procesima planiranja i projektovanja, Republika Srbija ne poseduje sopstveni model, već se koristi inostranim bez korektne kalibracije. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je kritička analiza rezultata primene postojećih modela predikcije saobraćajnih nezgoda na reprezentativnom broju deonica putne mreže Srbije. U drugom koraku sinteznom analizom dobijenih rezultata predložiće se smernice za kalibraciju analiziranih inostranih modela.
Ključne reči:
Modeli predikcije, saobraćajne nezgode, bezbednost saobraćaja
Abstract:
More than 1.25 million people a year are killed in road accidents. The main cause of suffering of young people aged 15 to 29 years was just accidents. 90% of the victims are from the countries with low and middle income countries, where the cost of road accidents is around 3% of GDP. The overall negative impact of traffic is usually quantified through the number of accidents and the consequences that they cause. The essential problem is how, in the planned period of exploitation routes for certain road and traffic conditions, to predict the number and severity of accidents. For many years, prediction models have been developed and applied, which have greatly influenced the prevention of accidents, and thus the reduction of the negative consequences that they cause. Although they represent very important and necessary tools in the planning and design, the Republic of Serbia does not have its own model, already used abroad without the correct calibration. The main objective of this paper is a critical analysis of the results of applying existing models to predict traffic accidents on a representative number of sections of the road network in Serbia. In the second step of synthesizing analysis results obtained will propose guidelines for calibration analyzed foreign models.
Keywords:
Models of prediction, traffic accidents, traffic safety
Presented by:
Sreten Jevremović
If you notice error at internet page (broken or misplaced links, incorrect data etc.) please contact website administrator with
admin@bslz.org.